Moaz Nair
UMNO is singing their own praises of having over 3 million members but little do they realise that not all these members would vote for them or for that matter come out to vote in the next general election.
In politics, numbers can sometimes be deceiving, but at times quite convincing. Political parties often claim to have a big number of members and supporters thus the illusion is that they will win big in an election. More often than not, flying their own kite is but a political scheme to delude the people. Even if they have the numbers it is not always going to be the case that these members would vote for their party in an election.
There can be other pertinent variables that will determine members’ trend of voting, such as displeasure with the performance of the party, sabotage or even their lackadaisical attitude towards casting their votes. It is thus just too imaginary for any political party to assert that all members will vote for their own party.
Did not vote for BN
3.4 million members of UMNO will not guarantee a win for UMNO or Barisan Nasional (BN). The 2008 general election was a case in point where almost half of UMNO members did not vote for BN. Election-2012 will most likely see the same trend. And to some political observers, this time around BN could possibly lose with a simple majority, the four states will remain under Pakatan and Perak will again fall to Pakatan. The prophecy is that many disgruntled UMNO members will again vote for the Opposition.
The 2008 setback for UMNO was unanticipated by many political observers but post-election analysis attributed the dent on UMNO and BN to the leadership factor of UMNO at that time. On the way to the next general election, UMNO is once again perceived by the masses as a weak party with a weak leadership.
Out of about 16 million eligible voters this time, there will be some 2.6 million newly young registered voters. The forecast is, the number of people who would actually vote could be about 10 million with about 1.5 million young voters – comprising 17 per cent of the electorate. Outwardly, according to studies, young voters and the new media will favour the Opposition more. Apparently the majority of these young voters have an anti-established tendency. They seem to have lost trust in the pro-government media. With many young voters becoming voters in the next general election will possibly tip the scale away from victory for UMNO and BN.
“The strategy is wrong. When the media go for the overkill it will backfire. Showing spliced pictures of personalities on television to tarnish the Opposition and fool the people has also backfired. The people don’t believe what they hear or see on television these days. They prefer the alternative media,” remarked a local university student.
More ripples within BN component parties
In the first six months of 2010, the voter registration drive saw Pakatan edging Barisan Nasional. DAP led with 32.5 percent, followed by UMNO 32.3 percent and PAS 22.7 percent. Voter registration for DAP and PAS combined was more than UMNO’s. This trend is continuing. If the trend and figures are taken to be a measure, it is a precursor that there is strong fervour among new voters to shore up the Opposition.
DAP has successfully recruited many Malay and non-Malay members, PKR has the advantage of attracting young members and PAS has also been a lure for young Muslim professionals. The road to victory will be too tough for UMNO. Dropping the present batch of aspiring candidates from becoming election candidates will cause more ripples within UMNO. Those dropped will have supporters who will sabotage the party like what had happened in the 2008 general election.
A young government servant had this to say: “The people – especially the young – are now aware of their rights to become registered voters, they want a two-party system and the sentiment on the ground is that the people want to see a change of government after being too long under the same old government.”
Malay dominance, Islam and the Royalty
Deprived of ideas to recoup a sinking party, UMNO has to use race, Islam and the royalty to win Malay votes. But this strategy does not seem to work with young voters. A survey on this jingle showed that the people are more concerned with other mundane issues than what UMNO is trying to vend.
Young voters are aware that PAS is also a Malay-based party and it can, with good grace, replace UMNO to represent this ethnic group. The four states under Pakatan rule have not shown any signs of aloofness towards the ethnic Malays, Islam and the royalty. In fact, according to the survey the young Malays and non-Malays are generally happy with the Pakatan government in these states.
“Desperate UMNO has to play with sensitive issues to attract Malay voters but the Malays this time are not going to fall for this trap,” said a university student in Shah Alam.
So desperate is UMNO now that they have to keep harping on Malay dominance, Islam and the Royal institution to stay relevant and afloat. They have failed to realise that their rabid ‘racism’ approach to politics, ostensibly supported by some unpopular NGOs are making young Malays reject UMNO. Mere racial or religious rhetoric to assuage the frustrations of the rakyat over their misdeeds in governance is not going to work this time. The young voters are sentient that in the scenario where Pakatan takes over Putrajaya, the political status quo would in the main remain the same. No way will the Malays or other ethnic groups be marginalised, as Pakatan’s manifesto guarantees the rights of all ethnic groups, respects the sanctity of Islam as the official religion and also recognizes the legitimate status of the Monarchy.
“The interests of all ethnic groups in the country would be guaranteed as stipulated in the Constitution. Islam will remain as the official religion of the country. The interests of the indigenous groups will be preserved as according to the Constitution, and the welfare of the non-indigenous will be guaranteed,” iterated a young DAP member from Johor.
UMNO is sidetracking the people
Even to the young voters they are more concerned with bread and butter issues, their displeasure over endemic corruption and abuse of power that is going on among politicians and those with authority and the need to vouch for a conducive living environment for all races. They are particularly responsive to the escalating crime rate in the country.
“UMNO is sidetracking the people. We are fed up with the crime rate in our residential area. The people are living in fear. Criminals are getting more violent these days. The authority seems to take this matter lightly,” groused a university student in Skudai, Johor.
UMNO depends heavily on rural Malays votes. They know that they cannot scoop enough votes from among urban Malays. Depending on the non-Malay votes is not going to help UMNO either. The Chinese will vote based on important issues affecting the country, the survival of their race and the economy. The Indians – majority being poor – have long been disappointed by UMNO. They have been marginalized since Independence.
UMNO cannot absolutely bank on Indian votes for all their past empty promises for this ethnic group. Many young non-Muslims feeling marginalized will vote for PAS, PKR and DAP for a change. Gone were the days where UMNO could convince the non-Malays not to vote for PAS. Today, UMNO cannot scare off the Muslims and non-Muslims for supporting Pakatan Rakyat – DAP especially, using the 13th May incident as the feared ‘scarecrow’.
“PAS is positively advocating a welfare state. The needy or the poor among all ethnic groups will be given support and aid priority to reduce the income gap between the rich and poor. We have to be fair to all the ethnic groups in the country. We have to reduce the income gap between the rich and the poor. PAS will not shun economic progress. We will be business friendly and hope to get more investors investing in this country to create more job opportunities for the people,” said a PAS Youth leader.
Christianization
Failing to win the hearts of the Malays, Christian-bashing has become a norm among some UMNO leaders supported by some sphinx-like lunatics from among NGO leaders. This has not impressed the young Malay voters who seem to be more liberal in their approach to politics.
To this, a PAS Youth leader noted, “The issue of Christianisation of Malaysia will never arise. This is only blank talk among desperate UMNO and some spare politicians who have formed NGOs to scare the Malays. The Malays would not lose power as being the majority race they will be numerically represented in PAS and PKR. Islam as stipulated in the Constitution is the official religion. And the minorities will not be stopped from practising their faith. Never, There is nothing for the non-Muslims to fear.”
Seemingly, the ‘threat to the royalty institution’ as raised by UMNO is a non-issue to the young voters. They opined that UMNO is deliberately raising this matter to politicize the whole issue for Malay votes. This, to them, is not going to favour UMNO. The perception of the young generation is that ‘as long as it’s a constitutional monarchy system we practise there is no basis for UMNO to claim that by voting the Opposition, it is going to be a threat to the royal institution’.
“UMNO is not sincere when they natter about the royalty. They merely make use of the royal institution for their selfish interests to stay in power. There was a time when the royalty was humiliated by UMNO leaders and their media during the Constitutional amendments in 1993. The Royalty was not given any room to rebut. They were disgraced and treated shoddily. That is real UMNO,” said a PKR Youth leader.
The views expressed by PAS and PKR is also propped up by a DAP youth leader:
“The Malays, all ethnic groups, Islam and the royalty will be of concern under Pakatan. The Constitution will be supreme, as a change of government is within the democratic framework. It is going to be a reform for a better Malaysia, not a revolution.”
Close-one-eye culture in UMNO
The Youth Wing in UMNO under the present uncharismatic and unpopular Youth leader is seen as too weak to win support from the young generation. And the young generation support for the Opposition is making UMNO apprehensive.
“Our leader was busy talking and defending the ‘beef valley’ scandal. Why must he be so concerned about this? He actually lacks charisma among the youth. He is an unacceptable political leader. We are now loosing support from the young generation, The young generation seems to have an anti-established tendency,” said a young UMNO member.
Noticeably, many inefficient and corrupt UMNO leaders are like ‘warlords’ with strong followers. The feeble headship of the party has no choice but to keep them within the fold for fear that by packing them off would deprive the party of the much-needed support. To the young generation, this ‘close-one-eye’ culture in UMNO has made the party seen as weedy and ineffective.
A heavily ‘clobbered’ Minister was recently reported as saying, ‘tell me which UMNO leader does not have problems’. This statement deeply implies that all other UMNO leaders have problems – perhaps just like the fix she is in now. Being a party insider she certainly knows of the ‘dirt’ that has soiled UMNO leaders. This is obviously perceptible to the young generation.
The young generation are not incognizant of aberrant UMNO. The RM250m ‘Beef Valley Scandal’ involving a company closely connected to UMNO and a ‘backdoor’ Cabinet Minister is only the tip of the iceberg. A lot more improprieties, scandals and abuse of contracts and taxpayers’ money have been swept under the carpet. T
he young voters are cognizant that some leaders, as reported, are collecting funds from contractors who have been awarded huge contracts and as reported one politician had the money credited into his personal account. The minister is now under investigation by MACC. Contracts are known to be given to cronies who would in turn help the politicians.
Crony companies have continued to receive profitable contracts – a perceptible case being that of the mega RM36billion Mass Rapid Transit project in the Klang Valley. The construction company MMC-Gamuda, linked to prominent Umno-friendly tycoons, will be the main beneficiary.
Buying of defence equipment apparently is not through direct dealings There must at all times be a ‘third party’ involved. The ‘third parties’ make lucrative profits and it involves millions of ringgit of taxpayers’ money. Exposing all these misdeeds will damage UMNO’s prospects further. However, pro-government media are always in cahoots with the wrongdoers to shade an unsoiled picture of those dubious leaders.
“When many UMNO leaders are perceived as corrupt, they are doing nothing to assuage this problem. This has hurt UMNO very much,” sneered a former UMNO Youth leader in Johor.
Silent rebels
The young generation know a lot more. The Corruption Perception Index (CPI) has slipped for the third consecutive year under Najib’s leadership. In the first decade of this century Malaysia lost RM1.08 trillion (US338 billion) in illegal outflow of money – fourth highest in the developing countries. This outflow of illegal money indicates corruption and abuse of power. Apparently, the government is all silent on this.
The headship is more interested in ‘image building’ where it was reported that millions of ringgit was spent on foreign agents to soothe his image as the premier. His economic reforms are better known for their flowery acronyms and formulas than the substance in them. The New Economic Model (NEM) – with its twin programmes of government and economic transformation – has shown no substantial change to the economy.
On the ground, what the young generation see is inflation and a much higher cost of living. His one-off distribution of money – considered as pittance by critics – to school children and those earning less than RM3,000 a month is just a political stunt. It gives no long-term impact to alleviate the high cost of living neither could this generate economic growth.
The income gap between the rich and poor is steadily increasing. The future economic prospect for the country looks bleak. Educated young graduates feel that fine-tuning government policies and introducing superfluous legislations are mere tactics to put a veil on the real economic and social problems facing the country. The approach is more for personal and political reasons rather than for the economy or the country per se.
UMNO is seen by the young generation as a party that has not evolved much. They are the same UMNO leaders who were fielded in the last general election. The pervasion of new blood into the party has been met with a lot of resistance. Too many existing UMNO aspirants are eyeing for the limited positions in the party and government. The gravy train is too tempting for them to stay aloof. Failing to achieve their desire will turn them into silent rebels and they end up sabotaging the party. This is a mindset that is fossilized among most UMNO aspirants and they will never change.
The young generation will this time vote for a change. They will vote for any other party as long as it is not UMNO or BN.
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