Written by Wong Choon Mei, Nawawi Mohamad, Malaysia Chronicle
As Malaysians brace for the 13th general election, widely expected to be called soon especially after the recent hint from former premier and still influential player Mahathir Mohamad, battle lines are also being drawn for another war - the fight for control of Umno.
Indeed, the tussle for the country’s largest political party, which has ruled Malaysia for 54 years, is shifting into its last lap and the momentum that is picking up may even exceed the interest its members feel in GE-13, although the two contests are inter-related and the outcomes inter-dependent.
The elite plot and scheme while Umno burns
At the very top, current president and prime minister of the country, Najib Razak, is trying to stave off a dogged and smart challenge from his Muhyiddin Yassin.
At 64, Muhyiddin is 6 years older than Najib. But despite a plodding image, Muhyiddin has played his cards well with the extremist factions in Umno, appealing to their innate racism and fear of competition should the party at last lose its political hegemony.
Other players with even more power due to their financial clout built through the decades of authoritarian rule are also waiting in wings, busily horse-trading to ensure their nominees and proxies are in place to help them grab power and shore up their positions in the party.
Apart from the 86-year-old Mahathir, men who fall under this category include former Finance minister Daim Zainuddin, former prime minister Abdullah Badawi, and another former Finance minister Tengku Razaleigh.
For these power-brokers, the key task is to ensure that their people – and this includes leaders from the Women and Youth wings – get to contest as many seats as possible in the GE-13. The ‘warlord’ who has the most number of Members of Parliament and State Assemblymen on his ‘payroll’ will be the one who gets to talk the loudest in Umno.
And this is important. Even if Umno and its BN coalition loses the federal state government, the party has huge chunks of equity and property assets worth billions of ringgit. This alone makes Umno the most prized takeover target in the country.
The 'hereafter' for Umno
Politically, its image has taken a severe battering and certainly Umno members these days have to whisper they are from Umno, not like before when such a pronouncement would have drawn awe and respect. Nowadays, Umno members are lucky if they draw jeers and boos and not rotten eggs and other verbal insults.
But political branding can be rebuilt. Umno and BN may face a tough time in GE-13 and even if they lose, there is GE-14 to win back the hearts and minds of the people it has governed in the past 5 decades.
The savvy in Umno realize this. And this why, even though Umno, the pirate ship, may have hit its berg and is fast sinking, the battle for control of the party will be the most intense ever in its long history.
For those players outside the elite circle controlled by the Najibs, the Mahathirs and the Badawis, GE-13 and the Umno 2012 polls represent the biggest opportunities for them to break through the old-boys-club and strike out for themselves.
Infighting, which has always simmered in Umno, has been visible for months now. It has intensified and can be expected to boil over – one way or another – soon.
Johore
It is said that Najib plans to place his supporters in the state in an effort to isolate Muhyiddin, who is struggling to garner support there. Although he hails from Johor, Muhyiddin does not have much grassroots support there.
Rumours are rife, Najib is plotting to put Johor MB Abdul Ghani Othman in a parliamentary seat to pave the way for current Higher Education Minister Mohamed Khaled Nordin to take over.
However, there are other potential candidates aligned to Najib who can also replace Abdul Ghani, such as are Pulai MP Nur Jazlan Mohamad and deputy Defence minister Abdul Latiff Ahmad.
Abdul Ghani has been in office since 1995. He was slotted there by Mahathir and has been able to build a strong rapport with the current Sultan. However, as was reported by Chinese dailies, he has ‘fallen out of favour’.
The question is, with whom is Ghani less favoured now? If it is just Najib – whose own political power is weakening by the day – Ghani may not be bothered to respond. He may chose to cling on, buoyed by support from the Palace and less visible hands in the party.
If Ghani decides he wants to stay in Johor, then a major fight will take place. Not only will Najib face infighting from Muhyiddin, who is also the Pagoh division chief, but also the more powerful player – Ghani Othman, a seemingly mild-mannered former University lecturer, who might decide to carve out Johor for himself and his own chieftains.
Turmoil in Kedah
Not too long ago, Najib decided to replace his trusty lieutenant Shafie Afdal as the liaison chief for Kedah Umno. He appointed Ahmab Bashah Md Hanapiah as the new state Umno chief with Mukhriz Mahathir - the youngest son of the former premier - as deputy Kedah Umno .
Three days later, Mukhriz told a press conference there already existed a spirit among the state Umno leaders and members to set aside trivial issues for the sake of strengthening the party and to return the state’s administration to Umno. Kedah is currently ruled by the Pakatan Rakyat. With his showy words, Mukhriz deliberately and effectively outshined Ahmab Bashah.
In August, Padang Serai Umno division chief Abdul Rahman Mahamud was asked to relinquish his post in line with ‘advice’ from the party’s top leadership. According to Kedah Umno chief Ahmad Bashah, Abdul Rahman would remain as the coordinator for the Merbau Pulas state constituency.
Ahmad Bashah did not elaborate on the reasons why Abdul Rahman was asked to step aside. "He is not being sidelined and the party appreciated his dedication and deeds to the party and the people all this while," he told Bernama after breaking fast at the Sungai Karangan mosque.
Not being sidelined? Ahmad Bashah must have been trying to be tactful. The fact is all of Najib’s people have been sidelined in Kedah, and no prizes for guessing by whom?
Yes, Kedah is the home state of the Machiavellain Mahathir Mohamad, who ruled Malaysia for an awesome 22 years. His sons are now among the richest men in the World. In early October in Jitra, Mahathir called on Umno members to return to the party's original struggle. Mahathir was not coy. He blared out his usual call to the Malays to be wise for “the sake of religion, race and country” and cast self-interest to win the GE-13.
"Previously, Umno members sacrificed anything, including pawning their jewellery, to help the party but now their posts are for landing contracts and to become candidates. If the general election is held now, Umno may lose big because the support and spirit have faded," Mahathir warned.
But those from the Najib and Badawi camp scoffed, saying that Mahathir was only serving his own interest “as usual”. Indeed, the show of unity and close rapport between Ahmad Bashah and Mukhriz is just a show.
The final blow to Najib’s people came in late October,when they were told they may have to “sacrifice for others”. Ahmad Bashah said he would abide by any decision made by the BN chairman, which is Najib, over seat allocations amongst BN components in the state.
It is also interesting to take note that recently the Umno Pokok Sena chief, Ahmad Lebai Sudin, had declared there was a great possibility of Mukhriz or Jamil Khir Baharum being appointed the Kedah Mentri Besar after the GE-13 – of course provided that BN manages to steal Kedah back from the Pakatan Rakyat.
On the receiving end of such active sniping, how long will Ahmad Bashah and his followers stay loyal to Najib and for that matter Umno? However one views it, in their desperation to fight for territory and to take back Kedah, the Umno elite has placed their own state apparatus in turmoil.
To blame is of course Najib. This is the problem with the 58-year PM, perhaps the weakest and least performing of Malaysia’s 6 prime ministers so far. While he wants to go head-to-head to Mahathir, he doesn’t dare to do so openly. This is why while he appointed Ahmad Bashah as state chief, he also promoted Mukhriz as the No.2 to placate Mahathir.
Such “waffliness” is unlikely to secure Kedah for Najib and fed-up Kedah warlords – many of whom dislike Mahathir – may decide to mutiny and strike out on their own.
COMING NEXT: The Battle for Umno: Selangor, Perak and Negeri Sembilan - Part Three
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